aircraft market forecast

NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, president of Asset Insight, forecasts prices to continue to increase through first quarter 2019.

January 22, 2019 – According to Asset Insight’s Year End 2018 Market Report (AI2 Market Report), demand for late model turboprops and large jets continued to increase in the fourth quarter of 2018 and helped drive a continued seller’s market with higher average selling prices.Excellent quality “for sale” aircraft are expected to drive prices up further in Q1 2019 as buyers’ and sellers’ expectations continue to converge on selling price.

The 4Q 2018 AI2 Market Report analyzes values for every production year of every modern make and model Business Class aircraft, while the Report’s maintenance analytics cover 94 fixed-wing models and 1,591 aircraft listed for sale.

Other trends detailed in the 4Q 2018 Market Report include:

• Ask Prices increased for all groups during Q4;

• Inventory aircraft with higher maintenance exposure relative to Ask Price, spent 57%

  longer on the market than comparable aircraft;

• Tracked fleet’s Quality Rating remained within the “Excellent” range and saw

  improvement in Q4 2018, over previous 12-month best ratings;

• Excellent Asset Quality improves Maintenance Exposure for most groups, except for Large

  Jets as the unsold inventory’s accrued/embedded scheduled maintenance increased (worsened).

  “Q4 continued the trend with sales of high-quality, recent models driving average selling prices higher” said Tony Kioussis, president of Asset Insight, LLC. “The seller’s market continued through the end of 2018, and we are forecasting increased prices well into 2019. However, buyers should continue to research the cost for pending maintenance events.”

  Note to editors, managers and owners: Please see the bottom right corner of each category page for a concise summary of the results and conditions in that specific market segment.

  Exclusively available from Asset Insight, the AI2 Market Report includes eTrend^TM, a 90-day forecast for aircraft value by make and model. This tool is especially helpful to sellers who are evaluating offers on their aircraft while concurrently considering if their prospects are likely to improve.

Statistically, Asset Insight's eTrend^TM forecasts are based on some of the most robust data analytics in the industry and have been thoroughly back-tested to confirm a significant degree of accuracy.

To download the complete Market Report covering Q4 2018, visit www.assetinsight.com or click here.

This press release was published on January 22, 2019 by Asset Insight.

NAFA member, Jetcraft, has released the findings from its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast, building upon the 2017 prediction of a new business cycle of steady, healthy growth and expanding revenues.  

Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, is today releasing its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast.

The annual market forecast reaffirms that steady growth in the private jet industry is set to continue, with predictions of 8,736 unit deliveries over the next 10 years, representing $271bn in revenues (based on 2018 pricing). North America will once again take the lead, accounting for 60% (5,241) of predicted new unit deliveries over the forecast period, with Europe expecting 18% (1,572), and Asia-Pacific 13% (1,136).

Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “2018 has been a real turning point for business aviation, as we have now successfully navigated through our industry’s most difficult period. This year’s forecast predicts the continuation of our current business cycle of steady and healthy growth, driven by an increase in wealth creation and the demand for larger and more expensive aircraft.”

The increase in wealth creation over the past decade has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more UHNWIs to the industry than ever before.

However, despite continued economic growth, Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, due to maintaining a focus on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This customer segment is unlikely to restart aircraft purchasing programs until well into the cycle.

The forecast predicts that the large jet category, comprising super large, ultra long range and converted airline segments, will constitute 32% of total units (2,778) and 64% of total revenue over the next decade. All new aircraft model programs, both announced and projected, during the forecast period are exclusively widebodies.

Fazal-Karim adds: “Predicted unit deliveries in the large jet category account for a huge proportion of total revenues in the industry, demonstrating the trend towards larger, long range aircraft to support today’s global business needs.”

While the industry is set to embark on a period of substantial growth, its resilience during the challenges of the previous business cycle has prepared it well for expansion.

Fazal-Karim concludes: “We’re confident that the lessons we’ve learned over the past decade will ensure sustainable growth for business aviation in the years to come. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.”

Jetcraft’s full 2018 10-year Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download here. Report graphs available for publication on request.

This market report was originally published by Jetcraft on October 10, 2018.