market update

NAFA member, Brant Dahlfors, with Jet Transactions, shares the 2018 Q3 Bombardier Market Update.

2018 continues to grow and show strong signs of stability. Q3 was exciting for new product certifications led by Gulfstream announcing the certification of the all new G500 and followed by Bombardier's certification of the Ultra-Long Range Global 7500. On top of new large aircraft product announcements at EBACE in May, confidence in future growth is apparent.

Overall, in the segments we track, Q3 reflected the normal seasonal variations (vacation time) and new deliveries and pre-owned transactions were down 20+% over Q2. Shops are full with pre- buys and NextGen upgrades in addition to their normal maintenance customers. The pre-owned inventory continues to fall, down another 8.1% this quarter. In many cases, popular late model aircraft are below 5% of the fleet being available for sale. Gross numbers of pre-owned transactions will continue to decline for the foreseeable future as the market is seriously supply constrained.

How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? With a whirlwind of new options coming to market soon, factory new buyers should soon start the migration from the existing product line to the latest and greatest offerings. Bombardier is well positioned with three new models to discuss – all available for delivery in the next 1-2 years. Overall pre-owned transaction levels dropped significantly across the Bombardier tracked models, with a slight uptick in inventory for sale. New deliveries also edged downward, the largest drop across all three OEM’s, though not uncommon traditionally for the third quarter.

Read the full report here.

The original market update was published by Jet Transactions on October 15, 2018.

Tinton Falls, NJ – May 2, 2018: According to AMSTAT, the first quarter of 2018 was a mixed bag for resale retail transactions but consistent, from an inventory perspective, as the availability of used aircraft tightened across all market segments.

The report breaks the market into Heavy Jet (>=40,000 lbs), Medium Jet (20‐40,000 lbs), Light Jet (<20,000 lbs) and Turbo‐Prop groups and then further reviews these groups using the following age segments: Newer (<=10 years), Mid‐Age (11‐20 years) and Older (>20 years).

Q1 Resale Retail Transaction performance was inconsistent across market groups and segments:

• In the Older Heavy Jet segment, 2.7% of the fleet turned over during Q1 2018 compared to 1.6% in Q1 2017. In the Mid‐Age Heavy Jet segment, 2.4% turned over in Q1 2018 versus 2.0% in Q1 2017 and in the Newer Heavy Jet segment, 1.9% turned‐over in Q1 2018 versus 1.1% in Q1 2017.

• In the Medium and Light Jet groups, the Q1 2018 performance in the various age segments was generally below or the same as for the same period in 2017. For example, while 2.2% of the Newer Medium Jets turned over in Q1 2017, only 1.5% turned over in Q1 2018; and while 2.1% of the Newer Light Jet segment turned over in Q1 2017, 2.0% turned over in Q1 2018.

• In the Turbo‐Prop group, Q1 2018 performance was generally on par with Q1 2017 with between 1.7% and 1.8% of active fleet turning over in each of the age segments.

  All market groups and age segments are reporting lower percentages of the fleet available for sale:

  • In the Newer Heavy Jet segment, 4.9% of the fleet is available for sale, compared to 8.0% a year ago. This the lowest percentage of this fleet for sale since 2013. In the Mid‐Age Heavy Jet segment, 7.3% of the fleet is for sale, compared to 10.2% a year ago. We have to go back to 2008 to see the last time that this segment was at this level.

  • In the Newer Medium Jet segment, 5.6% of the fleet is for sale, compared to 6.9% in April 2017. The percentages are currently higher in the Mid‐Age and Older Medium Jets at 10.0% and 13.9%, but these percentages are also down from a year ago when they were 11.6% and 14.9% respectively.

  • In the Newer Light Jet segment 5.8% of the fleet is for sale compared to 8.6% a year ago. This is lowest percentage in this particular market segment since AMSTAT has been keeping records. As with the Medium Jets, there is a higher percentage of the Mid‐Age and Older Light Jet segments for sale, but these percentages have also come down from a year ago.

  • In the Newer Turbo‐Prop segment, 5.0% of the active fleet is for sale, down from 5.9% a year ago. The Older Turbo‐Prop segment is at 9.4% and the Mid‐Age segment is at 6.2%, down from 10.2% and 7.9% respectively a year ago.

Read more at AMSTAT.